Show Me The (Stimulus) Money

Brad Thomas

467 postsDecember 16, 2020

REITs, like the rest of the market, ended high in the green yesterday. As I’ll be showing shortly, there were multiple positions up 5%, with two even crossing past the 6% mark.

So what is the actual economic news driving that? Or is it just more of the same back-and-forth, up-and-down emotions that seem to have been driving the markets for weeks now?

I’d love to say that this mid-December day was marked by solid data and expert analysis. But it was really about more “she loves me, she loves me not” news from Congress. So, yes, it’s about the stimulus relief package, which now looks like it will be passed sometime soon.

Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it. This isn’t to say I don’t believe it won’t go through eventually, only that – after all the delays this far – I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more to tackle before this year is up.

Then again, I also wouldn’t be surprised if it finally did go through this time. The way I see it, it’s just as up in the air as it’s been for months.

On the plus side, this kind of continuing uncertainty probably means that inflation won’t be much of an issue in 2021. Fiscal authorities have little reason to mess around with that factor considering how shaky the U.S. economy remains.

Regardless, investors today seem ready to believe the best, still fueled by optimism from yesterday, it appears. U.S. equity futures were already pointing to a higher open before 5:00 in the morning. And they remain up (for now, anyway).

Retail sales figures dropping by 1.1% in November, and there are negative expectations for the Fed’s newest take on the economy and where it’s headed, which is due out this morning.

But no matter! A stimulus bill might be here! The markets have clearly taken their cues from Congress in kicking the can down the road.

Speaking of closures, restaurants across the country are making the news. For instance, in Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz shut down all social gatherings, fitness centers, and bars and restaurants (with the exception of takeout or delivery) last month. As he contemplates reimposing those orders for another four weeks, a growing number of restaurants have already made up their minds…

More than 150 will be opening anyway.

Meanwhile, out in California, 11 state senators sent Governor Newsom an official request to deem restaurants as “essential.” Their basis is that eateries “do more than simply provide a place to eat. Restaurants are active participants in local neighborhoods, providing meals to senior citizens and working with food banks to feed families struggling to put food on their tables.”

Recognizing those exact issues, New York’s famous Uncle Jack’s Steakhouse is opening three more locations – in Georgia, of all places. New Yorkers are famous for their certainty that their state is the best – especially compared to anything south of them (New Jersey included). Yet CEO Willie Degel told After the Bell that he’s more than pleased with his first location there (established in 2016), especially when it’s becoming more and more impossible for anyone to operate in New York “unless you’re a publicly traded company.”

According to him, that’s a shame considering how he’s heard many people point out how much real estate values go up when one of his restaurants go in. I suppose that will just have to be New York’s gain and Georgia’s gain for now.

It’s that same kind of difference that’s keeping Florida relocations booming. Luxury real estate specialist Katrina Campins told Mornings With Maria yesterday that Miami especially continues to reap the benefits of celebrities and top financial executives stepping out of their original states, especially – once again – those from New York and California.

Some of them are taking their whole businesses with them too, which means it’s not just luxury homes that will benefit. Office buildings in the Sunshine State should be finding stronger support as well.

One major name that could be set to do that next is none other than Goldman Sachs. Sources say the big banker is considering taking itself and the $8 billion in revenue it generates to Palm Beach County or Fort Lauderdale.

Incidentally, I’m in West Palm Beach this week. And I’ve got to say… It feels nice!

Oh, and one final retail note worth mentioning: Best Buy has put its money where its mouth is by shrinking its store space at four locations in the Minneapolis, Minnesota, area. They went from an average 27,000 square feet to a mere 15,000 as the company prepares for a much more online-heavy sales future.

CEO Corie Barry called it a “test” of his “hypothesis of stores as more primary fulfillment hubs.” So you’d better believe I’ll be watching how that theory plays out.

Show Me the REIT Money

Looking at the chart below, you can see exactly what I mean about big winners yesterday. Though, just as clearly, there were some intense losers too.

The worst of that latter bunch was Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV). To put it bluntly, it tanked after finishing up its spinoff of Apartment REIT Corp. (AIR). Shares were split between the two accordingly, with AIR taking about 90% of the previous company’s assets.

Even so, TheStreet reports that its major drop “may be skewed and not yet account for the separation of the business.”

(Source: Daily REITBeat)

According to Daily REITBeat – which the Top 10 list above is attributed to – Simon Property Group (SPG) announced its dividend last night, with the board declaring a $1.30 per common share dividend, payable in cash, for the fourth quarter. It will be payable on January 22 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Christmas Eve.

Elsewhere, D.A. Davidson initiated an analysis of Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) with a buy rating and a $49 price target. And Hannon Armstrong (HASI) announced that it’s now exceeded $6 billion in energy efficiency investments from more than 600 individual transactions – quite the accomplishment.

That’s it for today, but make sure to keep a paradise mentality as today progresses. We’re building something good!

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

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Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

The Perfect Recipe for 2021

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Show Me The (Stimulus) Money

Brad Thomas

467 postsDecember 16, 2020

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Show Me The (Stimulus) Money

467 postsDecember 16, 2020

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