Editors' Pick, Featured Article

The Green New Deal Is an Oil Industry-Hating Mess

Brad Thomas

467 postsOctober 28, 2020

It’s not making headlines now, but don’t think for a moment that the Green New Deal isn’t still a big deal.

Right now, it’s a big deal theoretically speaking. But should Senator Joe Biden win the U.S. presidential election, it could become a reality.

For those of you who somehow missed the hullabaloo last February when Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, here’s CNN’s explanation of it at the time:

“‘Green New Deal’ fits perfectly on a bumper sticker.

“But the proposal isn’t a simple fix for what ails the U.S. It would equal taking American society back to the drawing board and rebuilding it from the safety net up.

“As written, it is more a list of ideas and ideals than an actual proposal, although the new climate change regulations it suggests could run to $1 trillion.

“What was entered as official legislative language on Capitol Hill declares the government should take a stronger position on everything from cutting carbon emissions to giving every American a job to working with family farmers to retrofitting every building in the country.

“Here’s a look at some passages that stuck out in the 14-page resolution and what they might mean for the country.”

Again, that’s published on CNN. And, as far as I can tell, the author – Zachary B. Wolf – is a full-fledged stereotypical CNN writer who supports liberal platforms and proudly promotes them. At least his record of recent articles strongly indicates as much.

Though I’ll let you be the judge of that by mentioning some of them in our next segment.

I Wish These Were Unfounded Conspiracy Theories

I’m not trying to be offensive with anything I said above or will say below. I’m making a point about the Green New Deal and how it will affect investments and investing if implemented.

In order to do that, I’m making sure to cite analysis as far away from Fox News and other such sources as possible for anyone inclined to think I’m drinking some kind of conservative Kool-Aid.

With that in mind, here’s some more Wolf writings:

On October 1, he denounced “President Donald Trump” for spreading “unfounded conspiracy theories about voter fraud.”
On October 6, he wrote an article titled “Pay attention to these headlines rather than Trump’s anti-reality.”
On October 13, he worried about “the great likelihood that [Amy Coney] Barrett “will join her conservative colleagues in rewriting U.S. abortion law.”

Creds checked and verified. He’s blue to the bone.

Yet he still noted that the GND’s proposal to meet 100% “of the power in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources” in the next 10 years – the actual proposal’s language, by the way – “would be a wholesale turnaround in U.S. energy.” As of last February:

“Renewables – including hydroelectric, wind, biomass, solar, and geothermal – currently account for 20% of U.S. energy production, about on par with nuclear energy as outlined by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Natural Gas accounts for the largest share – about 32% – and coal isn’t far behind, at 30%.”

Yet, within the space of a decade, a society that’s exceptionally dependent on oil and gas – for better or worse – will have none of it. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

Easy conclusion: We’ll go green, alright, though only because the entire economy collapses under the ridiculous regulations. And it goes without saying that anyone working for oil, fracking, and midstream companies will find themselves looking for new employment.

Ambition Galore

Moving down the list of disconcerting aspects Wolf addresses is the resolution’s call to upgrade “all existing buildings in the United States and [build] new buildings to achieve maximal energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability, including through electrification.”

Again, that’s in the next 10 years.

About that enthusiastic agenda, Wolf writes: “Without having to Google, we know there are a LOT of buildings in the U.S… and no one knows what it would cost to make them all ‘green.’”

Easy conclusion: The writers of the bill have no idea what they’re talking about. For that matter, they have no actual understanding of reality.

Neither do their fellow supporters in Congress, and that’s the charitable evaluation. It’s either that or they’re deliberately trying to destroy the U.S. with unachievable plans and unfathomable amounts of spending.

This definitely includes Kamala Harris, who was “a supporter and original co-sponsor,” according to her own press release. I know what she said during the vice-presidential debates about how, “Joe Biden will not ban fracking. That is a fact.”

But even if that were true, what about under a Kamala Harris presidency should anything happen to Biden? That’s not an idle concern.

Biden Blows Hot and Cold on Fracking and the Oil Industry

Besides, Biden himself has said one thing on the issue… and then said another. For instance, during the first presidential debate, he flat-out stated that he doesn’t support the GND. Yet his website states that he “believes the Green New Deal is a crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face.”

His supporters would say there’s a difference between a framework and full support, which could be true. But in that case, he needs to clarify his stance. Because, right now, his site has the following statement that “The United States urgently needs to embrace greater ambition on an epic scale to meet the scope of this challenge.”

Since I quoted CNN right from the start, it only seems fair to let me use Fox News for a moment, especially when everything it states can be easily verified:

“During a 2019 Democratic primary debate, Biden was asked whether there would be ‘any place for fossil fuels, including coal and fracking, in a Biden administration.’

“Biden’s response: ‘No, we would – we would work it out. We would make sure it’s eliminated and no more subsidies for either one of those, either – any fossil fuel.’

“During Thursday’s [presidential] debate, Trump pressed Biden on whether he would shut down the oil industry.

“‘I would transition from the oil industry, yes,’ Biden responded.”

Again, die-hard supporters can make their arguments that he clarified his statement after that. But that was only after the moderator prompted him to.

As such, anyone involved in the oil and gas industry – fracking included – should be getting extremely nervous right about now, to say the least.

Their investors too.

An Investor’s Conclusion

In line with Trump’s last four years in office, a second term for him would likely mean a continued focus on energy independence and less restrictive environmental regulations for the industry, specifically utilities.

The Affordable Clean Energy rule, which Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency put into place in 2019 and which allows states to develop their own plans for limiting regulation, would continue to govern emission standards.

Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement in June 2017, a decision that would likely hold if he serves a second term.

As Anne Slattery, Senior Analyst at RSM explains. “a Biden win would mean that oil and gas companies across the energy value chain will need to shift their focus and rethink their strategy in order to survive long term.

If Trump is elected to a second term, we do not expect any major, immediate changes in the energy policy landscape. Whatever the result of the election, though, it is crucial for companies to focus on emission goals and sustainability.”

With several high-quality MLPs trading at historic lows, we know the value proposition that exits, while the concept behind the Green New Deal is an Oil Industry-Hating mess!

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

One Critical Fact That Could Make Or Break Your Portfolio This Election Season

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

The Green New Deal Is an Oil Industry-Hating Mess

Brad Thomas

467 postsOctober 28, 2020

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