iREIT Daily

Are We at the Brink of A Bull Market?

Brad Thomas

467 postsMay 4, 2022

If you haven’t noticed, there’s been a pretty big sale on stocks lately. In the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen slumps across trading indexes, from the S&P to the Dow. And with the markets looking this bearish, many believe a rebound, rally, or reversal could be coming our way.

Call it speculation. Call it desperation. Call it a shot in the dark by the most distressed sector of our American money machine, but there may be a couple of angles to this optimistic expectation that actually make sense.

The first indication comes from the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX or the fear index. The VIX measures the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 options.

The fear index has been at or above 30 for the past week — it touched a high of 32.82 yesterday. Investors will usually consider a reading over 30 to be an indication of intense fear in the market.

This gauge of short-term stress has previously been a turning point for risk assets, with volatility topping out in the days just before the Fed’s last three meetings of 2022. Look at it like the physics of fiscal volatility – what goes up must come down, every action has an equal and opposite reaction, etc. Except, this is all charted through the peaks and valleys of stock tickers.

Another indicator of an impending upswing comes from France through the Societe Generale, or SocGen. The Societe Generale is a French multinational investment bank that also gauges gut investment reactions through the SA sentiment indicator.

From Bloomberg:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic said this week that “investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness,” meaning a rebound could be on the cards. Meanwhile, a Societe Generale SA sentiment indicator recently dropped to levels last seen during the peak of Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.
“This will likely culminate in a bounce in equities,” Societe Generale strategists Manish Kabra and Arthur Van Slooten wrote last week.

In terms of volatility, these speculations could spell a peak in the precariousness of our current economy. Of course, only time will be the true arbiter of market adjustments, but we can hold out hope.

More Non-REIT News to Know About

Spirit Airlines Remains Free-Spirited

On Monday, Spirit Airlines snubbed an acquisition offer from JetBlue Airways, saying regulatory restrictions would likely prohibit the proposal.

JetBlue recently announced an alliance with American Airlines, prompting the Justice Department and several states to sue the airline, arguing that the merger is anti-competitive. Since JetBlue has no plans to abandon the partnership, Spirit plans to steer clear of any acquisition attempts.

In a statement on Monday, the chairman of Spirit’s board, Mac Gardner, said the company stood by plans to merge with Frontier Airlines instead, a courtship that preceded JetBlue’s offer and one that Spirit says reflects the best interests of long-term shareholders.

Gardner said:

After a thorough review and extensive dialogue with JetBlue, the board determined that the JetBlue proposal involves an unacceptable level of closing risk that would be assumed by Spirit stockholders. We believe that our pending merger with Frontier will start an exciting new chapter for Spirit and will deliver many benefits to Spirit shareholders, team members and guests.

Perhaps the Frontier partnership will bring out the best of both airlines to create a new one – one by which passengers can bring their backpack on the plane without paying a $50 fee. We can dream.

The World According to REITs

WhiteStone Puts Up Strong Q1

Whitestone (NYSE: WSR), a high-end neighborhood community and shopping center operator, just announced stellar Q1 earnings. This Sunbelt developer basically acquires, owns, manages, and leases outdoor shopping centers with a slant on building better communities.

For Q1, it reported $34.1 million in revenue, a huge increase from $29 million in Q1 of last year. Its NOI growth of 12.9% makes it super attractive to many REIT investors… And with a 7% year-over-year rental revenue growth, there must be something to the shopping experiences it’s creating in the Sunbelt.

CEO Dave Holeman said:

Our necessity-based community centers, located in high-growth sunbelt markets, continue to drive strong consumer traffic and tenant demand, as evidenced by increases in rent per square foot and occupancy levels. As we move through 2022, we will continue to focus on maximizing shareholder value through organic growth, prudent capital allocation, reducing G&A, improving our debt leverage and delivering on our targeted FFO per share growth of 14% to 19%.

This pretty much says it all. I mean, no matter what’s happening on Wall Street, Scottsdale stays about shopping.

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

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Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

The Rally We’ve Been Waiting For

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Are We at the Brink of A Bull Market?

Brad Thomas

467 postsMay 4, 2022

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Are We at the Brink of A Bull Market?

467 postsMay 4, 2022

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