iREIT Daily

Bears, Bulls, and Survey Support for Both

Brad Thomas

467 postsMarch 21, 2022

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) says that, over the past 10 weeks, an average 23.9% of investors have been bullish.

Which makes sense considering all the bearish movements in that time. If anything, I’m slightly surprised it’s not lower.

The Morning Brief tells us:

Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner points out this is the lowest average level of bullishness since the June 2016 Brexit referendum and one of the least optimistic readings since the survey’s inception in 1987.

That’s why we saw the market rally last week, it goes on to state. (The S&P gained 6%+, the Dow gained 5.5%, and the Nasdaq added 8%+). Moreover, history suggests that activity could continue for the next 6-12 months.

Then again, “All of this bizarre hopefulness could turn on a dime in the current environment.” Right now, we just don’t know.

We’re not exactly living in normal times these days, after all.

As for this day, speculation about Nike (NKE) could influence larger stock direction, as it reports earnings after the bell. So could Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic’s remarks to the National Association for Business Economics about “Labor Markets and the Economic Outlook.”

I’m also going to use this section to mention how stock buybacks hit a record level last quarter. To quote S&P Global:

S&P 500 Q4 2021 buybacks were $270.1 billion, up 15.1% from the record set in Q3 2021. Total 2021 buybacks were $881.7 billion, up 69.6% from 2020 and up 9.3% from the prior annual record set in 2018.

Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B) found something to invest in after all. Warren Buffett may have been sighing over the investing landscape a week ago, but his company just agreed to buy Alleghany Corp. (Y) for $11.6 billion.

More Non-REIT News to Know About

I also need to mention that three U.S. oil field services companies – Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), and Baker Hughes (BKR) – came out over the weekend to announce sanctions against Russia. All three basically boil down to this: They’re suspending new investments in the country.

According to Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a senior associate dean at Yale University, they join more than 400 U.S. companies in this effort.

Speaking of U.S. companies – jut on a completely separate note – Microsoft (MSFT) conducted a recent survey that found 50% of them want to return employees to pre-pandemic norms. In other words, they want their butts back in the office 40 hours a week again.

That’s good news for office real estate investment trusts (REITs). What isn’t is how 52% of workers seem to be looking for jobs that allow them to work at home full- or part-time.

And here’s another interesting poll we can easily link to REITs, courtesy of Evercore ISIS and written up by Yahoo Finance:

The survey found a Covid-era record 74% of people say they are comfortable eating at a restaurant, above the prior high of 70% last summer. “We believe much of this increase is due to the recent 94% reduction in Covid cases in the U.S. Importantly, Covid fatigue also seems to be impacting comfort levels – comfort is higher than at any point in time since the start of the pandemic despite cases being [2x-3x] higher than summer 2021 and vaccine efficacy being lower than in the past,” explained the survey’ author and analyst, David Palmer.

That news might help the S&P 500 Restaurant Index, which is down close to 4% this past month.

The World According to REITs

Perhaps I should have mentioned this next bit in the “Non-REIT News” portion and the office and restaurant surveys here. But we just learned that existing home sales fell 7.2% in February month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year.

Pending home sales fell November-January. So this makes sense considering the month-or-more lag between the two phases. Still, analysts had predicted a January-to-February drop of only 6.2%.

Also on the residential side, MarketWatch reports:

In January, there was a seven-fold increase in foreclosure starts as compared to December… according to a report from mortgage data and analytics company Black Knight. What’s more, data from real estate data analytics firm ATTOM Data Solutions revealed that lenders repossessed 2,634 U.S. properties through completed foreclosures in February 2022…

That’s a 70% increase from February 2021 but down 45% from January 2022 and 40% from before the shutdowns. So for homebuyers looking for price relief, that remains around another corner.

Sorry.

Hopefully some of the following REIT reporting can help distract you until then:

Preferred Apartment Communities (APTS) says the “go-shop” period ended in its agreement with Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust. As such, BREIT will move forward with acquiring APTS’ outstanding shares for $25 per share, or $5.8 billion.
Camden Property Trust (CPT) will purchase the outstanding partnership interests (68.7%) in two discretionary investment funds from Teacher Retirement System of Texas for approximately $2.1 billion.
Power REIT (PW) signed a lease amendment concerning a six-acre greenhouse cultivation property in York County, Maine. It will now finance an energy efficient onsite power generation and cooling system for the existing facility costing about $3.5 million. In return, the tenant will pay around $654,000 more in annual rent.

As shown below, the latter’s stock was already on an uptrend even regardless.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

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Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Dividend Growth Stock of the Week: Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Bears, Bulls, and Survey Support for Both

Brad Thomas

467 postsMarch 21, 2022

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Bears, Bulls, and Survey Support for Both

467 postsMarch 21, 2022

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