iREIT Daily

Counting the Costs vs. the Consumers

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 18, 2022

In the last couple of weeks, we’ve witnessed a whirlwind in terms of economic data.

Inflation metrics have quickly outpaced predictions from top economists. And earnings season has shed light on some of the challenges our banking institutions face.

Throughout all of this though, the American consumer has remained surprisingly strong, all things considered. Even though discretionary spending waned from its pandemic levels, Americans are still driving up demand for homes, cars, and other big purchases.

But how much longer can that last? Or, to ask another relevant question, how is this even possible?

As inflation soars, the American consumer has battled higher prices and a weakened dollar. They’ve been able to do this because wages have inflated along with costs.

During the pandemic, U.S. wages grew by 7%. Now, they’re rising at a rate of about 4% – which is well below the 9.1% growth in inflation. And with such an imbalance between wage inflation and cost inflation, spending power is expected to decrease too.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

“Over the past year, wage increases have continued to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with year-over-year growth topping 4% each month.
“But those steady gains have been wiped out by high prices. When taking inflation into account, there hasn’t been a single month with year-over-year earnings growth since March 2021.
“Spending also rose over the past year, and like with wages, it was outpaced by inflation. Americans are spending more because of high prices, but adjusted for inflation, they are actually consuming less.”

This is a telling bit of information – especially since many of the most optimistic economists cite strong consumer activity as the reason why they’re expecting a mere mild recession.

When adjusted for inflation though, it appears that spending isn’t actually as strong as we once thought. Actual American consumption appears to be leveling off instead of increasing.

Take retail for example. Sales appear to be up 30% from pre-pandemic numbers. But when you adjust for inflation, they’ve only risen 15%.

Eventually, the increases in inflation will catch up with the slowing of wage increases. At that point, we may see a sharp decline in spending.

In fact, we probably will. It’s almost inevitable.

More Non-REIT News to Know About

A few weeks ago, I reported on a new proposal by Netflix (NFLX) – the one to incorporate an ad platform into its streaming service.

As we learned in it Q1 earnings, sales declined sharply. And Netflix has since made more headlines with a swift round of layoffs.

The ad platform idea is supposed to remedy further revenue losses.

Many across Madison Avenue speculated on how this ad platform would play out. But now we know a little bit more.

It seems the home of Stranger Things and The Circle has found an exclusive partner in Microsoft (MSFT).

Historically, that pioneer in personal computing software has had a rather paltry presence in video ads. Who can forget the pummeling it took after the iconic Mac Vs. PC ads starring Justin Long?

But that was then. This is now. And as former Alphabet (GOOG) executive Tim Armstrong just said, “Microsoft just moved from supporting character in advertising to a main character.”

He added. “Netflix has probably the most valuable pool of inventory in the world of video advertising, which historically has been the most important area.”

Can it work? Or will Microsoft remain the old fuddy duddy in “film”?

Stay tuned to find out!

The World According to REITs

Today, I want to give an update on a real estate investment trust (REIT) I currently consider a Speculative Buy.

Easterly Government Properties (DEA) has one tenant and one tenant alone: The U.S. government. It rents its properties out to agencies such as the FBI, CIA – yes, DEA – and the like.

Today, it announced that, through a joint venture:

“… it completed the acquisition of the previously announced 67,793 leased square foot outpatient facility leased to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) located in Columbus, Georgia.”

That’s the seventh property out of 10 it’s promised to purchase for VA use “under predominantly 20-year firm term leases.” That’s one of the many things we like about DEA: How long its contracts run for.

Hey, the government doesn’t mess around with where it wants to be. So neither should its landlord.

Plus, considering what Biden keeps saying about government expansion… there could be plenty more room for growth for DEA up ahead.

Author’s Note: If you do determine this stock is right for you, make sure to purchase it at a smart entry point. Even the best of companies can burn you badly by buying in at inflated prices.

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

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Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

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REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Counting the Costs vs. the Consumers

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 18, 2022

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Counting the Costs vs. the Consumers

467 postsJuly 18, 2022

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