iREIT Daily

Is Residential Real Estate on the Rocks?

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 20, 2022

With so many factors influencing the real estate world today, it’s difficult to determine where that market is headed. Record high inflation – coupled with labor scarcities and lumber shortages – has erected huge roadblocks for the construction industry.

Inventory is at an all-time low. And as funds from Biden’s infrastructure bill hit the industry, competition for building contracts is heating up.

In the residential realm especially, there’s been an unprecedented run on housing. Demand is at an all-time high and, with it, prices have soared through the roof.

In cities like Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado, many homebuyers can expect hectic bidding wars. The result can be a final buy price that’s intensely, even insanely, higher.

Ouch!

As the Federal Reserve continues its campaign to raise interest rates, many hope demand will subside and inventory will increase. Unfortunately though, this inventory problem may get worse before it gets better.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

“Housing starts fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted 1.56 million [in June], the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected housing starts to rise 1.4%. Building permits slipped 0.6% to 1.69 million, but held 1.4% higher than the figure in the prior year. The drops came as interest rates climbed and a global housing boom faded.
“The construction decline was driven by a drop in building in the South. Western states also saw a notable drop. Construction activity increased in the Northeast last month.”

This isn’t just bad news for homebuyers. It’s also a telling trend in the broader economy.

As most of us know, real estate investors are some of the savviest economic enthusiasts on the market. So a drop in new construction endeavors tells us that their confidence is waning, even though we’ve seen record demand.

In short, it seems many builders are trying to button up their assets before the market turns.

Of course, new construction is only one sign of economic strength in this sector. Previously owned home sales are also a key indicator.

Today, we expect new data from The National Association of Realtors to reflect sales of existing homes. (That comes out after I’ve sent this copy in to be published.) But we already know that, last month, those sales declined by 0.9%.

If we see a bigger drop today, we may see more investor anxieties and a further decline in inventory still. And if the Fed raises interest another 0.75%, this softening could become a long-term trend.

More Non-REIT News to Know About

Alright then. Back to Twitter (TWTR)…

Things just got more serious in its feud with Elon Musk. Yesterday, a Delaware judge agreed to fast-track Twitter’s lawsuit to hold the world’s richest man to his original offer.

Chancellor Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick – chief judge of the Delaware Chancery Court – set a trial date in October. That wasn’t what Musk wanted at all, but them’s the breaks.

Her stated reasoning is that Twitter could face serious setbacks from the uncertainties over its future as a public company. Therefore, forward they should proceed as quickly as possible.

“Those concerns are on full display in the present case,” she said. “Typically, the longer the merger transaction remains in limbo, the larger the cloud of uncertainty cast over the company and the greater the risk of irreparable harm to the sellers.”

That’s precisely the argument Twitter made.

In the hearing yesterday, Musk’s attorneys accused Twitter of railroading him to close the deal while ignoring the truth over the number of fake and spam accounts – exactly as expected. They also explained that Musk has no interest in harming the company, which is probably a good point.

After all, he’s still Twitter’s second-largest shareholder.

The World According to REITs

One of my favorite data real estate investment trusts (REIT) is Digital Realty (DLR).

The company just reaffirmed its partnership with cloud computing giant Oracle (ORCL) after leasing critical infrastructure to the blue-chip clients in its Interxion Paris Digital Park. Located just a few kilometers from that famed city, IPDP provides cloud- and carrier-neutral data center services across the region.

Oracle’s choice to access IPDP infrastructure was made in direct response to the demand surge for hybrid cloud services coming from Paris’ public and business sectors. This expansion marks the opening of Oracle’s 38th global cloud region.

Christophe Negrier, a senior executive of Oracle France, said:

“After the opening of our first cloud region in Marseille, we have selected Interxion again to help deploy our critical infrastructure and offer Oracle Cloud Infrastructure via our newest cloud region in Paris. This relationship is based on a common objective to support the digital transformation of companies by limiting their environmental impact.”

Right now, DLR is sitting around $123.63, up over three points in the last 24 hours. And with continued confidence from clients like Oracle, I’m super excited to see what its next steps will be.

Author’s Note: If you do determine this stock is right for you, make sure to purchase it at a smart entry point. Even the best of companies can burn you badly by buying in at inflated prices.

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

More Real Estate Data to Digest – If You Can

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

Is Residential Real Estate on the Rocks?

Brad Thomas

467 postsJuly 20, 2022

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Is Residential Real Estate on the Rocks?

467 postsJuly 20, 2022

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