iREIT Daily

The U.S. Isn’t Looking Good, and China Could Be Worse. But Paris Is Amazing!

Brad Thomas

467 postsOctober 11, 2021

I might be in Paris, France, right now – more about that shortly – but that doesn’t mean I haven’t noticed the American news that came out since my last post.

Let’s start with Friday’s big story…

“September jobs report disappoints, big miss on expectations,” read the Yahoo Finance headline on Friday morning. Below it was the qualifier, “Only 194,000 jobs were added; 500,000 were expected.”

Seeing that immediately brought two things to mind:

That initial statement should be in the running for most downplaying language of the year.
I told you so.

On that first one, missing an estimate by 306,000 jobs isn’t “disappointing.” It’s an abject failure of analysis, not to mention an enormous failure that needs to be assessed and addressed immediately.

On that second one, let me highlight what I wrote in Friday’s blog post ahead of the announcement:

The jobs report is due today, but it’s not out yet as I compose this. I know that experts are making their predictions, but considering how their predictions have been so wrong so many times…
I can’t say I’m in the mood to join in on the speculating. It will be what it will be, and we’ll deal with it accordingly.

Then there are the Southwest (LUV) flight delays and cancellations.

Last week, the airline – the nation’s biggest domestic flyer – informed its employees that they have until December 8 to be fully vaccinated. Its pilots’ union immediate filed to block that mandate, but employees themselves may have taken matters into their own hands since.

Southwest had to cancel 1,000+ flights this weekend due to “disruptive weather” and air traffic control issues. But there are plenty of people speculating otherwise.

The timing is certainly suspicious, to say the least.

Lowered U.S. Expectations and More Chinese Debt Than You Can Imagine

In more disappointing news, Goldman Sachs (GS) now estimates 5.6% U.S. GDP growth for 2021 and 4% for 2022. That’s down from 5.7% and 4.4%, respectively, due to such things as:

A likely fall in fiscal support this year
Consumer spending coming back slowly
Virus-sensitive consumer services suffering further
Semiconductor supply issues that will last into 2022.

In that case, rising energy prices aren’t going to help.

It’s not surprising that crude oil prices are up over 2020. But by 64% to a seven-year high, sending national gas averages over $3?

After a weekend grocery trip that left his jaw on the floor, Yahoo Finance Anchor and Editor-at-Large Brian Sozzi wrote in Monday’s Morning Brief:

All year, the Federal Reserve has shoved down Mr. Market’s throat that inflation is transitory. I would encourage all of these government workers in their gilded offices to spend a week touring grocery stores and maybe do some real on the-ground-work because they have set investors up to fail.

He also brought up natural gas nearly doubling in six months, gas costing “north of $4 a gallon” on the West Coast, and cotton prices rising 25% since September 20.

Yet, even with all that, we might still be better off than China. According to economists at Nomura Holdings, it’s not just Evergrande that’s learning a valuable – and possibly fatal – financial lesson these days.

Chinese developers in general went way too far way too fast with their building efforts these last few years… resulting in $5 trillion+ in debt… nearly double what they ended with in 2016.

Like I’ve been saying about Evergrande’s woes, this isn’t a situation to be ignored. It could turn out just fine from here.

But I’m not betting on that any more than I am “transitory” inflation.

The World According to REITs (and Paris)

Okay! Enough with all the doom and gloom.

Let me tell you about my trip so far through pictures like this one on a particular Parisian street:

And this one at the Arc de Triomphe du Carrousel…

And this snapshot with the one and only Eiffel Tower…

I also learned something fascinating about the Louvre that I hope to share with you soon. Though that will have to wait, since I still have to tell you about what’s happening with the real estate investment trusts (REITs) I know you count on me to monitor.

For instance, Realty Income (O) says it will exchange all of Vereit’s (VER) validly tendered and accepted notes for its own. That’s pretty important news.

And you might also be interested to know that:

Corporate Office Properties (OFC) saw Fitch affirm its BBB- long-term issuer default ratings, complete with a stable outlook.
Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) saw S&P affirm its BBB+ issuer credit rating, complete with a revised outlook from stable to positive.
Farmland Partners (FPI) appointed Luca Fabbri as company president and James Gilligan as CFO and treasurer.

I’m sure I’ll have more to share with you tomorrow on every single front. So while I know I say to stay tuned often enough, I can’t mean it more these days.

We might be in for miracles up ahead… or life could get a lot more interesting from here.

(Source: The Daily REITBeat)

Happy Investing

Brad Thomas

467 posts

View all my Posts

Brad Thomas is Senior Research Analyst at iREIT and CEO of Wide Moat Research LLC. With over 30 years of real estate experience, he is also long-time Editor of Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter that dives deep into the vast world of profitable properties, and since 2021, he has served as an adjunct professor at New York University.

Thomas has also been featured on or in Forbes magazine, Kiplinger's, U.S. News and World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. And he was the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 based on both page views and number of followers.

Thomas is the recently-published author of The Intelligent REIT Investor Guide (2021), co-author of The Intelligent REIT Investor (2016), and he wrote The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (2016) - all available on Amazon.

Thomas received a bachelor of science in business/economics from Presbyterian College and is married with five wonderful kids.

Dividend Growth Stock of the Week: RPM International

REIT Mutual Fund	Symbol
Alpine Realty Income and Growth Fund	AIGYX, AIAGX
American Century Real Estate Fund	REAIX, REACX, AREEX, AREWX, ARYCX, AREDX
Real Estate Securities Fund	MRESX
AR Capital Real Estate Income Fund	ARIAX, ARICX, ARIPX
AssetMark Real Estate Securities Fund	AFREX
Aston/Harrison Street Real Estate Fund	AARIX, ARFCX
Baron Real Estate Fund	BREIX, BREFX
BlackRock Real Estate Securities	BIREX, BAREX, BCREX
Brookfield U.S. Listed Real Estate Fund	BRUAX, BRUCX, BRUIX, BRUYX
CGM Realty Fund	CGMRX
West Loop Realty Fund	REIIX, REIAX, REICX
Cohen & Steers Institutional Realty Shares	CSRIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Income Fund	CSEIX, CSDIX, CSBIX, CSCIX
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares	CSRSX
Columbia Real Estate Equity Fund	CREAX, CREIX, CRRVX, CRERX, CREEX, CRRFX, CREWX, CRECX, CREBX
Compass EMP REC Enhanced Volatility Weighted Fund	CWRAX, CWRIX, CWRTX, CWRCX
Davis Real Estate Fund	RPFRX, DREYX, DRECX, DREBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio II	DPRTX, DPRBX
Delaware Real Estate Investment Trust Portfolio	DPREX, DPRSX, DPRRX, DPRCX
DFA Real Estate Securities Portfolio	DFREX
Dunham Real Estate Stock Fund	DAREX, DNREX, DCREX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Fund	RRRRX, RRREX, RRRAX, RRRSX, RRRBX, RRRCX
DWS RREEF Real Estate Securities Income Fund	REFAX, REFCX, REFIX, REFSX
Eaton Vance Real Estate Fund	EAREX, EIREX
EII Realty Securities Fund	EIIRX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Fund	FHEIX, FHEAX, FHETX, FHECX, FHEBX
Fidelity Advisor Real Estate Income Fund	FRIRX, FRIQX, FRINX, FRIOX
Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund	FRIFX
Fidelity Real Estate Investment Portfolio	FRESX
Fidelity Spartan Real Estate Index Fund	FSRNX, FRXIX, FSRVX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Equity Fund	FREDX, FREFX
Fidelity Series Real Estate Income Fund	FSREX, FSRWX
Forward Real Estate Long/Short Fund	KSRYX, FRLSX, FFSRX, KSRAX, KSRCX, KSRBX
Forward Real Estate Fund	FPREX, FFREX, KREAX, KRECX
Forward Select Income Fund	KIFYX, FSIMX, FFSLX, KIFAX, KIFBX, KIFCX
Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund	FREEX, FRLAX, FRRSX, FSERX
GMO Real Estate Fund	GMORX
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Securities Fund	GREIX, GRETX, GREAX, GRESX, GRERX, GREBX, GRECX
Great-West Real Estate Fund	MXREX
Heitman REIT Fund	OARTX, OBRTX
ING Real Estate Fund	CRARX, IREWX, IDROX, CLARX, CRWRX, CRCRX, CRBCX
INVESCO Real Estate Fund	REINX, IARFX, IARIX, IARYX, IARAX, IARRX, IARCX, AARBX
Ivy Real Estate Securities Fund	IRSAX, IREIX, IRSYX, IRSRX, IREEX, IRSCX, IRSBX
John Hancock Real Estate Securities Fund	JIREX
Johnson Realty Fund	JRLTX
J.P.Morgan Realty Income Fund	URTLX, JRIRX, URTAX, URTBX, URTCX
J.P. Morgan Security Capital U.S. Core Real Estate Securities Fund	CEEAX, CEERX, CEEFX, CEESX, CEECX
J.P. Morgan U.S. Real Estate Fund	SUSIX
Lazard U.S. Realty Equity Portfolio	LREIX, LREOX
Lazard U.S. Realty Income Portfolio	LRIIX, LRIOX
Manning & Napier Real Estate Series	MNRIX, MNREX
Morgan Stanley Institutional U.S. Real Estate Portfolio	MSUSX, MUSDX, MSULX, MURSX
Natixis AEW Real Estate Fund	NRFAX, NRFYX, NRFBX, NRFCX, NRFNX
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund	NBRIX, NBRFX, NREAX, NRERX, NRECX, NRREX
Nuveen Real Estate Securities Fund	FREAX, FARCX, FRSSX, FREBX, FRLCX, FREGX
Oppenheimer Real Estate Fund	OREAX, OREIX, OREYX, ORENX, OREBX, ORECX
PHOCAS Real Estate Fund	PHREX
PIMCO RealEstateRealReturn Strategy Fund	PRRSX, PETPX, PETAX, PETDX, PETCX, PETBX
Pioneer Real Estate Shares	PWREX, PYREX, PCREX, PBREX
Principal Real Estate Securities Fund	PIREX, PIRPX, PREPX, PRETX, PREJX, PRRAX, PRERX, PRENX, PRAEX, PRCEX, PRLEX
ProFunds Real Estate UltraSector ProFund	REPIX
Prudential Select Real Estate Fund	SREAX
Prudential U.S. Real Estate Fund	PJEAX, PJEZX, PJECX, PJEBX
REMS Real Estate Income 50/50 Portfolio	RREIX
REMS Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund	HLRRX, HLPPX
Rydex Real Estate Fund	RYREX, RYHRX, RYCRX
SA Real Estate Securities Fund	SAREX
SEI Institutional Mgd Real Estate Fund	SETAX, SEIRX
Spirit of America Real Estate Income & Growth Fund	SOAAX
SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund	SSREX
Stratton Real Estate Fund	STMDX
T.Rowe Price Real Estate Fund	TRREX, PAREX
TIAA-CREF Real Estate Securities Fund	TIREX, TRRPX, TRRSX, TCREX
Vanguard REIT Index Fund	VGSNX, VGRSX, VGSLX, VGSIX
Virtus Real Estate Securities Fund	PHRAX, PHRIX, PHRCX, PHRBX

REIT ETF	Symbol
Flex Shares	ASET
Wisdom Tree Global Ex-US	DRW
S&P 500 Equal Weight	EWRE
iShares FTSE Industrial/Office	FNIO
MSCI Real Estate Index	FREL
S&P REIT Index	FRI
First Trust S&P REIT	FRI
iShares Real Estate 50	FTY
Flexshares Global	GQRE
iShares Cohen & Streers	ICF
iShares International Developed RE	IFGL
iShares US RE	IYR
Premium Yield Equity REIT	KBWY
ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leverage	MORL
Market Vector Mortgage	MORT
iShares Global REIT	REET
iShares FTSE Mortgage	REM
iShares Residential	REZ
IQ US Real Estate Small Cap	ROOF
iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail	RTL
DOW Jones Global RE	RWO
SPDR Dow Jones	RWR
Schwab US REIT	SCHH
Super Dividend REIT	SRET
ProShares Ultra RE	URE
Vanguard REIT	VNQ
Vanguard Global ex-US	VNQI
iShares International Developed	WPS
Wilshire US REIT	WREI
Pacer Benchmark Data & Infrastructure RE	SRVR
Pacer Benchmark Industrial RE	INDS
Pacer Benchmark Retail RE	RTL
Hoya Capital Housing	HOMZ
NetLease Corporate RE	NETL

REIT Name	Ticker	Annual Increases/yr
Federal Realty	FRT	51
Universal Health Realty	UHT	33
National Retail Properties	NNN	29
Realty Income	O	27
Tanger Outlets	SKT	26
Urstadt Biddle	UBA	25
Essex Property Trust	ESS	25
W.P.Carey	WPC	22
National Health Investors	NHI	17
Equity Lifestyle	ELS	15
Digital Realty	DLR	15

The U.S. Isn’t Looking Good, and China Could Be Worse. But Paris Is Amazing!

Brad Thomas

467 postsOctober 11, 2021

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The U.S. Isn’t Looking Good, and China Could Be Worse. But Paris Is Amazing!

467 postsOctober 11, 2021

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